* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 08/21/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 45 62 81 96 106 110 117 120 118 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 45 62 81 96 106 110 117 120 118 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 32 39 49 59 69 76 83 87 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 9 10 10 19 15 11 13 11 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -4 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 -2 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 37 36 38 45 51 33 41 25 357 25 36 43 35 SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 161 163 164 163 159 160 161 162 161 155 145 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.1 -50.2 -49.9 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 85 86 85 85 85 85 82 81 81 81 82 81 82 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 14 16 19 24 30 35 39 44 47 49 850 MB ENV VOR 40 32 24 15 19 28 35 54 76 94 101 119 139 200 MB DIV 97 114 81 71 94 151 128 133 129 102 104 90 54 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 -1 -1 -5 -2 -3 1 -6 -5 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 545 511 496 509 521 560 624 632 607 666 662 691 703 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.5 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.7 15.8 16.7 17.6 18.5 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 97.3 98.7 100.1 101.3 102.5 104.7 107.0 108.4 109.3 110.7 112.9 114.7 116.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 13 12 12 11 9 8 7 10 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 13 30 39 56 52 58 36 23 29 22 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 34. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 19. 28. 35. 39. 47. 50. 51. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 20. 37. 56. 71. 81. 85. 92. 95. 93. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 08/21/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 08/21/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##