* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 08/22/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 43 45 50 53 57 58 62 64 66 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 43 45 50 53 57 58 62 64 66 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 45 49 51 53 55 58 62 66 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 14 13 15 20 18 20 16 22 13 19 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -6 -5 0 2 -1 0 -2 0 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 290 279 295 280 252 273 271 313 310 348 335 336 296 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 145 148 150 152 151 154 157 154 153 150 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 146 147 151 149 142 135 136 136 132 130 127 121 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 11 10 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 63 62 63 64 63 57 60 60 63 59 53 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 9 10 10 12 11 13 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 33 24 16 14 11 -15 -6 -9 28 33 47 44 22 200 MB DIV 44 39 38 36 6 10 39 33 40 42 9 18 42 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -8 -5 0 -1 -4 -2 0 1 0 5 3 LAND (KM) 670 459 261 125 177 167 306 410 498 588 654 658 666 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 21 22 19 11 7 7 6 4 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 68 73 69 70 2 1 1 64 63 58 56 43 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 20 CX,CY: -14/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 15. 18. 22. 23. 27. 29. 31. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 08/22/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 08/22/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 08/22/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)