* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/22/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 57 57 54 50 44 39 36 28 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 57 57 54 50 44 39 36 28 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 58 59 59 57 54 48 43 38 33 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 5 10 14 15 17 13 10 8 4 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 1 1 -1 0 0 2 -3 6 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 69 77 68 78 83 61 76 84 86 360 285 275 235 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.7 25.6 24.7 23.3 22.4 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 131 129 129 125 121 120 119 110 96 86 81 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -50.3 -50.0 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 54 51 47 45 45 47 49 52 49 44 39 37 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 19 19 18 18 16 14 13 10 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 24 33 28 29 37 30 52 62 68 69 43 3 -24 200 MB DIV 37 35 19 28 22 26 16 35 3 2 -3 -15 -9 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 -1 0 1 -2 1 -8 0 2 1 15 LAND (KM) 2001 2036 2071 2103 2136 2225 2143 1944 1742 1567 1457 1352 1303 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.4 17.4 18.2 19.2 20.9 23.4 25.4 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 136.6 136.2 135.8 135.4 135.0 134.0 132.6 130.9 129.3 128.5 128.7 129.5 130.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 7 8 9 9 11 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 18 18 13 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -11. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -11. -16. -19. -27. -35. -42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/22/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/22/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##