* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * LOWELL EP122014 08/22/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 57 54 47 38 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 59 57 54 47 38 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 57 55 52 46 39 34 30 27 24 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 5 4 4 3 5 7 8 17 22 32 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 0 0 1 -2 0 -4 -4 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 87 135 116 147 158 318 276 289 265 269 240 237 224 SST (C) 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.1 24.6 23.6 22.7 22.3 22.1 22.1 22.5 23.1 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 119 113 108 98 88 83 82 82 87 93 97 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.6 -50.4 -50.7 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 59 54 55 52 51 54 51 50 48 46 44 43 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 38 36 36 34 31 29 26 23 21 18 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 108 110 102 91 83 72 105 110 114 109 93 88 85 200 MB DIV 54 44 -5 -10 5 -27 35 0 7 5 10 10 10 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 5 4 -2 4 0 4 5 16 12 12 LAND (KM) 1102 1114 1132 1152 1180 1252 1323 1320 1342 1386 1461 1531 1668 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.2 22.7 23.8 24.8 25.7 26.4 27.3 28.4 29.1 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.3 123.9 124.6 125.3 126.7 128.1 129.4 130.6 132.1 133.9 135.9 138.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 9 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -11. -16. -21. -24. -25. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 8. 5. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -20. -23. -26. -29. -30. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -13. -22. -34. -43. -50. -55. -61. -65. -67. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/22/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/22/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##