* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132014 08/22/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 47 55 73 88 101 109 113 119 119 116 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 47 55 73 88 101 109 113 119 119 116 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 41 45 56 67 77 83 88 93 96 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 10 13 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -2 -3 0 0 -1 -5 -3 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 52 39 49 64 73 40 39 14 8 37 48 40 46 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.6 28.9 28.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 165 166 166 163 160 163 163 161 154 144 133 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -51.4 -51.9 -50.7 -50.9 -49.7 -49.8 -48.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 86 84 85 84 85 83 80 79 79 78 74 70 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 16 18 22 26 31 35 39 44 46 48 850 MB ENV VOR 39 32 30 30 39 35 53 65 94 105 115 153 178 200 MB DIV 98 79 72 93 136 129 124 107 116 82 108 72 76 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 3 1 -5 1 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 423 416 430 441 454 470 506 529 597 572 592 643 679 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 1 11 26 22 22 17 11 5 1 46 43 28 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 32. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 27. 32. 37. 45. 46. 46. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 25. 43. 58. 71. 79. 83. 89. 89. 86. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 THIRTEEN 08/22/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 63% is 4.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 THIRTEEN 08/22/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##