* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 08/22/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 35 40 46 52 57 62 67 72 72 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 35 40 46 52 57 62 67 72 72 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 30 31 33 36 39 44 49 56 61 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 11 13 18 14 18 11 17 17 15 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 0 1 -1 -2 -2 -3 1 7 2 3 SHEAR DIR 260 282 284 254 273 274 287 321 327 358 329 349 318 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 148 150 152 152 155 154 152 153 148 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 147 146 144 144 139 137 136 132 128 129 127 119 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 12 12 12 11 9 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 64 65 63 60 60 60 64 58 51 45 42 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 15 16 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 32 25 28 18 1 -7 -14 27 47 82 78 74 34 200 MB DIV 56 49 49 16 -4 24 27 53 33 63 39 27 27 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -1 -1 -1 -3 2 3 1 3 5 3 LAND (KM) 380 174 77 155 108 222 380 495 568 650 702 713 587 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 18 16 14 10 8 7 5 4 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 72 67 2 2 2 1 64 64 61 60 50 38 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 21 CX,CY: -17/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 22. 27. 32. 37. 42. 42. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 08/22/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 08/22/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 08/22/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED