* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/22/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 58 59 53 49 45 40 33 26 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 58 59 53 49 45 40 33 26 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 56 56 56 54 49 44 38 34 30 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 9 13 14 17 17 11 9 9 6 8 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 0 -1 0 1 1 0 -3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 73 63 83 83 66 75 81 111 94 72 208 242 226 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.1 23.9 22.8 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 131 130 128 125 122 120 119 113 102 91 83 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.2 -50.6 -49.8 -49.6 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 54 49 49 50 52 54 56 54 52 44 37 34 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 18 20 20 17 17 17 16 13 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 27 19 18 24 23 4 44 43 59 36 38 -3 -25 200 MB DIV 43 30 28 33 51 9 31 37 23 1 -6 4 15 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 0 -1 1 -5 -2 -1 5 5 21 LAND (KM) 2076 2109 2143 2181 2219 2239 2044 1863 1700 1588 1531 1470 1343 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.6 17.6 18.4 19.2 20.4 22.2 24.2 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 135.9 135.5 135.1 134.7 134.2 133.1 131.6 130.1 128.8 128.4 128.9 129.7 130.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 8 8 8 7 8 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 26 17 17 18 12 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. -2. -6. -10. -15. -22. -29. -35. -42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/22/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/22/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##