* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/22/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 49 44 40 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 52 49 44 40 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 52 49 47 44 39 34 31 28 25 22 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 2 6 8 5 4 5 15 16 25 29 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -3 -3 1 -2 1 -3 -1 -4 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 127 157 205 200 227 260 277 257 254 251 229 236 229 SST (C) 26.0 25.6 25.1 24.6 24.1 23.1 22.4 22.1 22.0 22.2 22.7 23.3 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 113 108 103 92 85 81 81 84 89 95 98 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -50.5 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.4 -50.2 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 55 55 51 50 51 50 45 43 40 41 42 40 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 35 33 31 30 28 25 21 19 17 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 104 98 86 78 74 73 101 114 122 89 53 43 33 200 MB DIV 41 7 -4 -3 -25 25 9 -24 3 -4 8 8 5 700-850 TADV 0 2 6 4 0 0 4 1 7 5 11 15 18 LAND (KM) 1099 1113 1134 1170 1210 1280 1288 1303 1340 1392 1405 1523 1670 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.3 24.5 25.5 26.2 26.8 27.8 29.2 29.9 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 123.1 123.8 124.5 125.3 126.0 127.3 128.6 129.8 131.0 132.6 134.4 136.4 138.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 7 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -22. -22. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 2. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -14. -20. -23. -24. -28. -30. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -15. -24. -34. -44. -51. -55. -61. -66. -69. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/22/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/22/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##