* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/22/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 54 63 81 95 109 117 122 124 121 112 V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 54 63 81 95 109 117 122 124 121 112 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 42 46 51 62 73 83 89 93 96 96 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 15 13 9 15 11 12 12 10 13 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 -1 0 0 -2 3 1 SHEAR DIR 24 26 52 60 40 28 30 13 353 22 23 39 70 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.4 28.5 27.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 165 165 163 160 161 163 162 159 150 139 129 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.3 -50.7 -50.3 -50.0 -49.6 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 85 86 85 85 84 83 82 82 80 80 77 76 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 18 20 22 27 31 37 42 47 50 51 49 850 MB ENV VOR 37 37 35 40 41 47 53 73 88 106 131 167 159 200 MB DIV 94 68 73 131 145 127 104 136 101 106 74 66 14 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -3 -6 -6 -3 0 -5 -3 3 -7 -7 LAND (KM) 444 462 480 483 473 503 543 596 632 589 671 701 767 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.9 15.4 16.2 17.3 18.4 19.3 20.3 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 100.3 101.5 102.7 103.8 104.8 106.5 108.0 109.5 111.1 113.0 115.2 117.1 118.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 11 10 8 8 9 10 11 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 24 20 23 22 11 10 5 49 45 26 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 8. 17. 24. 34. 39. 46. 51. 52. 46. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 19. 28. 46. 60. 74. 82. 87. 89. 86. 77. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/22/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/22/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##