* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 08/22/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 41 47 50 58 62 70 80 84 85 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 41 47 50 58 62 70 80 84 85 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 39 41 44 49 55 62 69 73 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 18 22 20 13 16 13 20 13 20 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 0 0 1 0 -3 -4 -4 4 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 262 252 241 265 274 250 310 285 319 274 275 261 284 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.5 27.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 152 153 153 157 156 154 152 144 134 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 148 146 145 143 137 139 133 131 132 125 114 109 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.5 -51.7 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 10 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 58 58 60 61 68 57 47 39 40 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 14 15 20 26 28 28 850 MB ENV VOR 32 29 22 -1 -1 8 -4 45 67 97 107 88 89 200 MB DIV 40 42 32 -2 3 35 19 47 58 46 56 -20 24 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 -2 0 -5 0 3 3 5 18 12 5 LAND (KM) 118 144 126 145 211 313 449 553 613 643 684 532 390 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 23 19 17 15 12 8 7 4 5 8 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 58 79 81 83 52 43 38 39 37 41 26 19 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 25 CX,CY: -22/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 867 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 12. 15. 23. 27. 35. 45. 49. 50. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 08/22/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 08/22/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 08/22/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED