* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/22/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 56 54 51 45 39 36 32 27 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 56 54 51 45 39 36 32 27 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 55 54 51 46 41 36 32 29 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 11 14 9 13 15 13 14 6 8 2 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 1 0 1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 67 90 88 59 71 68 84 94 124 111 56 168 239 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.3 25.9 25.8 25.9 25.9 25.3 24.2 23.6 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 129 127 125 121 120 121 120 115 104 97 93 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.8 -51.1 -51.2 -50.5 -50.3 -49.4 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 48 46 48 48 49 54 54 56 50 42 35 31 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 20 20 19 19 17 16 15 13 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 22 27 34 42 20 35 42 37 35 34 32 15 10 200 MB DIV 42 33 33 43 33 31 41 29 13 8 3 4 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 -2 -1 0 -5 -1 -2 -1 3 4 LAND (KM) 2090 2114 2139 2170 2202 2191 2022 1877 1767 1701 1699 1741 1752 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.7 21.1 22.1 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 135.7 135.4 135.0 134.6 134.2 133.0 131.5 130.1 129.2 129.2 130.1 131.1 132.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 6 4 6 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 13 17 10 9 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -10. -16. -19. -23. -28. -35. -41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/22/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/22/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##