* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/22/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 49 44 39 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 53 49 44 39 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 50 48 45 39 34 30 27 23 20 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 5 4 4 9 8 14 20 28 28 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 0 2 -2 2 -1 1 -5 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 149 314 296 274 286 248 277 270 256 232 228 218 227 SST (C) 25.5 25.0 24.5 24.0 23.4 22.6 22.3 22.1 22.0 22.3 22.9 23.4 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 117 112 107 102 96 87 83 81 81 85 91 96 99 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.1 -50.7 -50.8 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 -50.1 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 52 50 49 50 53 52 51 49 49 45 43 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 35 34 32 30 30 27 23 21 19 17 15 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 94 90 81 60 56 86 101 109 91 81 81 63 42 200 MB DIV 6 6 6 -36 -34 34 -7 7 0 28 7 14 25 700-850 TADV 2 4 5 0 -2 0 2 4 5 13 14 22 27 LAND (KM) 1118 1136 1160 1191 1229 1290 1294 1307 1340 1411 1483 1594 1672 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.4 22.9 23.5 24.1 25.1 25.7 26.4 27.1 28.0 29.1 29.9 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 123.9 124.6 125.2 125.9 126.6 128.0 129.0 130.1 131.3 133.0 135.3 137.3 138.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 8 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -9. -14. -18. -23. -24. -24. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. 1. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -5. -11. -16. -20. -23. -25. -28. -28. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -16. -27. -38. -47. -54. -60. -66. -69. -69. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/22/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/22/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##