* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/22/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 53 62 72 82 99 113 123 128 128 127 122 112 V (KT) LAND 45 53 62 72 82 99 113 123 128 128 127 122 112 V (KT) LGE mod 45 52 60 67 74 87 98 103 105 103 99 91 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 15 16 11 12 11 18 14 10 13 13 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -3 -2 0 -3 -4 0 0 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 39 53 64 45 21 34 16 37 24 23 28 37 41 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.0 28.1 26.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 164 163 161 161 162 161 161 155 146 132 122 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -51.4 -51.7 -50.5 -50.6 -49.7 -49.3 -48.8 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 87 86 86 85 85 82 80 79 78 75 73 71 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 20 23 25 29 35 40 45 48 49 50 48 850 MB ENV VOR 41 38 38 40 38 59 74 95 106 129 162 177 150 200 MB DIV 78 79 111 114 107 147 113 110 102 80 86 47 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 -6 -5 -2 -1 0 -4 2 -2 -5 -9 LAND (KM) 480 496 508 502 512 562 623 711 677 691 715 760 841 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.4 15.0 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.4 19.6 20.9 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 101.8 103.0 104.1 105.0 105.9 107.7 109.5 111.2 112.8 114.6 116.4 118.4 120.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 50 60 58 60 65 39 24 36 26 8 4 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 425 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 24. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 6. 10. 17. 26. 35. 41. 45. 48. 48. 43. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 27. 37. 54. 68. 78. 83. 83. 82. 77. 67. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/22/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 73% is 5.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 59% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 54% is 9.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 41% is 9.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/22/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##