* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/22/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 65 61 54 47 39 35 29 24 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 65 61 54 47 39 35 29 24 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 67 66 64 57 50 44 39 34 31 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 9 12 15 17 14 8 11 4 6 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 93 101 91 83 78 77 78 99 76 72 138 187 204 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.8 26.0 25.9 25.5 24.9 24.2 23.7 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 127 125 123 120 122 120 115 110 103 99 95 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.0 -51.0 -49.8 -49.7 -49.0 -48.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 45 48 49 50 51 53 54 49 43 39 33 29 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 19 18 18 17 15 14 12 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 24 31 38 28 49 64 59 75 74 63 28 24 28 200 MB DIV 41 36 25 34 27 25 17 32 10 16 4 5 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 6 10 LAND (KM) 2109 2139 2170 2218 2254 2085 1931 1806 1736 1720 1759 1832 1882 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.5 17.9 18.5 19.3 20.1 21.0 21.8 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 135.4 135.0 134.6 134.1 133.5 132.0 130.5 129.5 129.3 129.7 130.7 132.1 133.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 4 4 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 10 9 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -4. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -18. -26. -30. -36. -41. -47. -54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/22/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/22/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##