* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/22/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 39 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 39 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 48 46 43 41 36 32 28 25 21 19 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 6 4 8 6 13 20 25 28 31 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 0 -4 1 -1 0 -3 -4 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 168 234 242 272 257 270 268 241 257 240 237 235 244 SST (C) 25.2 24.6 24.0 23.6 23.1 22.6 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.5 23.2 23.6 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 114 109 102 97 92 87 82 81 82 87 95 98 100 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 -50.1 -50.1 -49.8 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 52 51 49 53 50 49 47 46 46 45 43 41 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 31 30 29 27 25 21 19 17 16 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 86 82 71 65 69 95 115 103 94 72 35 7 -3 200 MB DIV -4 6 -23 -26 19 16 -7 9 -10 4 8 8 10 700-850 TADV 4 4 0 -3 -2 4 0 6 8 13 16 16 16 LAND (KM) 1139 1164 1196 1233 1274 1312 1307 1348 1401 1487 1553 1665 1757 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.8 23.4 23.9 24.4 25.1 26.0 26.6 27.2 28.1 29.4 30.3 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 124.4 125.2 125.9 126.6 127.2 128.4 129.6 130.9 132.2 134.0 136.4 138.5 140.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 11 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -20. -20. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 2. -3. -7. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -20. -22. -23. -26. -26. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -16. -26. -37. -46. -52. -56. -61. -64. -67. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/22/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/22/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##