* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/22/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 68 78 88 104 116 125 129 126 121 110 97 V (KT) LAND 50 58 68 78 88 104 116 125 129 126 121 110 97 V (KT) LGE mod 50 57 65 72 79 90 98 102 102 98 91 83 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 12 13 11 13 14 13 12 15 16 16 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 0 0 -1 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 60 53 27 9 32 48 35 12 8 25 44 52 62 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.3 28.5 27.4 26.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 163 161 161 162 162 162 158 150 138 128 120 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.0 -51.5 -51.1 -50.7 -50.1 -49.8 -49.4 -49.3 -49.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 86 87 85 85 83 82 79 78 77 76 75 69 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 21 24 27 28 33 37 43 48 50 50 48 43 850 MB ENV VOR 39 40 41 42 49 62 81 99 118 155 169 168 164 200 MB DIV 102 121 103 109 127 101 130 155 111 62 51 12 -3 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -9 -7 -4 -4 -1 0 -1 -4 -8 -9 -6 LAND (KM) 503 510 512 525 547 583 672 694 700 763 807 908 963 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.5 16.2 17.0 17.9 18.9 19.9 20.9 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 104.0 105.0 106.0 106.9 108.7 110.4 112.2 114.1 116.1 118.1 120.1 122.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 59 58 58 64 56 26 27 38 13 3 1 17 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 20. 19. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 3. 7. 11. 19. 27. 36. 43. 45. 46. 42. 35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 18. 28. 38. 54. 66. 75. 79. 76. 71. 60. 47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/22/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 75% is 5.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 64% is 7.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 59% is 9.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 51% is 11.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/22/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##