* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 08/23/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 47 52 60 65 71 72 77 73 72 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 47 52 60 65 71 72 77 73 72 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 41 47 54 63 70 74 73 70 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 17 10 8 13 8 22 19 27 25 28 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 -4 -2 -2 -1 1 1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 251 272 279 272 250 319 303 310 283 316 311 317 331 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.6 27.8 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 152 153 153 155 157 156 153 145 135 127 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 144 143 142 138 137 136 136 133 127 117 110 111 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.6 -52.7 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 60 61 60 64 55 47 43 42 43 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 11 13 13 16 17 20 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 50 26 16 26 23 12 56 71 81 75 46 -28 -33 200 MB DIV 48 14 9 44 43 25 58 37 49 39 21 13 0 700-850 TADV 5 5 5 1 -2 0 0 0 -2 1 -2 0 9 LAND (KM) 39 63 133 204 273 343 450 585 712 752 628 563 594 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 10 9 6 6 7 8 10 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 73 77 43 45 46 42 39 41 51 28 32 9 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 794 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. 0. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 3. 3. 6. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 25. 30. 36. 37. 42. 38. 37. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 08/23/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 08/23/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 08/23/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED