* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/23/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 68 64 61 49 41 31 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 70 68 64 61 49 41 31 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 71 71 68 64 57 49 41 35 30 25 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 8 12 12 16 18 9 17 11 8 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 99 107 101 93 89 87 86 80 113 148 179 114 81 SST (C) 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.5 25.0 24.4 23.8 23.6 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 123 121 119 119 119 115 110 105 99 98 98 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 -50.9 -50.8 -49.7 -49.4 -48.8 -48.8 -48.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 48 49 50 51 51 52 50 44 38 34 30 28 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 18 17 18 16 16 13 10 8 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 36 43 40 62 80 92 92 85 62 38 39 34 56 200 MB DIV 30 23 14 13 21 24 38 -13 -1 1 -1 -13 1 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 0 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 2131 2167 2204 2224 2141 1970 1796 1688 1653 1674 1760 1852 1965 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.7 22.0 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 135.0 134.6 134.1 133.5 132.8 131.2 129.7 128.9 129.0 129.7 131.1 132.7 134.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 8 6 4 4 6 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -8. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -6. -9. -21. -28. -39. -49. -54. -60. -66. -71. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/23/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/23/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##