* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/23/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 35 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 35 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 39 36 34 30 27 24 21 18 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 9 6 7 7 13 22 20 28 33 39 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 0 0 -2 0 -3 1 -2 -4 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 241 262 281 269 243 270 238 261 239 230 230 237 233 SST (C) 24.7 24.2 23.7 23.3 22.9 22.4 22.2 22.1 22.3 22.8 23.4 23.8 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 109 104 99 94 90 84 82 82 84 91 97 101 105 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -50.6 -50.2 -49.6 -49.6 -49.5 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 51 51 53 52 48 48 44 44 42 45 41 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 28 27 26 26 23 19 18 16 14 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 73 64 56 62 86 104 117 100 79 56 18 3 -7 200 MB DIV 3 -14 -24 9 20 8 33 -8 0 5 14 13 -11 700-850 TADV 4 0 -3 -2 1 2 4 3 15 6 12 9 7 LAND (KM) 1159 1195 1237 1272 1311 1309 1362 1414 1472 1528 1650 1764 1828 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.2 23.7 24.2 24.7 25.4 25.9 26.5 27.3 28.2 29.5 30.5 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 125.0 125.8 126.5 127.1 127.7 128.8 130.3 131.7 133.2 135.2 137.7 139.9 141.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -11. -14. -17. -17. -16. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 2. -3. -8. -14. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -15. -18. -19. -22. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -14. -23. -34. -41. -49. -54. -60. -64. -67. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/23/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/23/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##