* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/23/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 68 77 86 95 109 119 124 124 116 105 90 76 V (KT) LAND 60 68 77 86 95 109 119 124 124 116 105 90 76 V (KT) LGE mod 60 67 74 80 86 95 99 102 101 96 86 74 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 14 15 12 15 12 12 15 19 25 20 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -4 -3 0 2 0 4 7 3 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 53 17 26 42 22 27 32 19 39 35 42 59 78 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.1 28.1 26.6 25.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 161 160 161 161 162 162 156 146 131 121 111 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -51.9 -51.0 -51.1 -50.3 -50.3 -49.3 -49.3 -48.9 -49.2 -48.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 86 84 84 82 82 82 81 82 81 76 69 64 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 27 28 31 34 39 44 47 50 49 47 42 38 850 MB ENV VOR 43 47 46 50 54 64 83 97 149 176 169 167 176 200 MB DIV 144 118 123 100 104 93 95 109 130 25 19 -15 -2 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -7 -9 -6 -5 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -11 1 LAND (KM) 521 527 548 594 629 700 752 725 761 797 828 911 1029 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.6 15.3 16.3 17.1 17.9 19.1 20.9 22.1 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.2 105.2 106.2 107.2 108.2 110.0 111.6 113.2 115.0 117.0 119.2 121.5 123.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 12 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 56 58 64 53 38 29 39 27 9 2 17 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 10. 19. 28. 33. 37. 36. 33. 26. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 26. 35. 49. 59. 64. 64. 56. 45. 30. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/23/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 67% is 5.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 54% is 6.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 46% is 7.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 42% is 9.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/23/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##