* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 08/23/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 45 48 55 63 72 78 82 84 85 81 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 45 48 55 63 72 78 82 84 85 81 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 40 42 49 58 68 76 80 81 77 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 5 4 6 7 12 10 15 9 17 12 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 2 3 10 1 4 3 SHEAR DIR 270 281 288 297 306 352 330 1 337 336 323 304 320 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.4 28.8 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 153 155 155 156 157 159 162 158 148 139 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 144 142 141 139 135 134 137 141 139 128 117 111 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 62 59 61 60 56 49 50 48 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 14 13 13 14 16 19 22 23 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 28 15 24 29 15 34 59 95 72 62 33 15 -22 200 MB DIV 17 26 37 40 32 64 55 44 27 36 24 29 9 700-850 TADV 5 4 3 1 -1 1 0 2 0 7 9 12 22 LAND (KM) 17 77 134 205 230 298 334 380 465 516 585 547 458 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 7 4 3 4 6 9 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 48 54 49 49 34 43 21 39 45 36 60 29 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 13. 20. 28. 37. 43. 47. 49. 50. 46. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 08/23/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 08/23/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 08/23/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)