* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/23/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 67 63 57 46 38 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 69 67 63 57 46 38 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 70 68 65 61 53 46 40 34 30 25 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 12 15 17 16 7 14 13 13 7 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 3 0 1 -3 -2 -2 2 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 100 97 83 84 84 97 77 73 127 145 127 107 122 SST (C) 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.4 24.8 24.5 24.3 24.2 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 121 119 119 119 118 114 108 105 103 103 101 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -50.8 -50.5 -49.6 -49.5 -49.3 -49.3 -48.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 51 50 50 47 41 40 35 30 28 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 19 19 17 16 14 12 12 10 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 41 36 56 73 86 75 88 75 68 52 60 35 52 200 MB DIV 15 13 13 25 16 7 16 -13 13 7 10 6 7 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 1 1 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 2150 2198 2237 2149 2061 1882 1740 1667 1649 1694 1770 1874 1954 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.4 20.7 20.8 20.9 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 134.7 134.2 133.6 132.9 132.1 130.4 129.2 128.8 129.1 129.8 130.7 131.9 133.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 5 3 3 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -19. -22. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -13. -24. -32. -43. -48. -55. -63. -71. -77. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/23/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/23/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##