* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/23/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 34 31 29 25 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 11 13 13 26 28 35 37 40 43 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 -2 -4 0 -6 0 -2 0 0 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 238 268 279 259 275 258 257 252 226 220 216 225 227 SST (C) 24.2 23.8 23.4 23.0 22.6 22.3 22.2 22.1 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.0 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 104 99 95 91 86 83 82 82 85 92 98 103 105 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -50.6 -50.2 -50.0 -49.7 -49.6 -49.2 -49.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 50 53 54 52 50 50 49 51 49 49 46 43 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 25 24 23 22 19 16 15 13 11 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 58 51 65 90 88 98 94 74 81 67 48 20 -13 200 MB DIV -14 -10 18 16 19 0 42 -23 -10 0 14 5 -30 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -1 1 2 1 3 18 3 18 3 3 -1 LAND (KM) 1188 1226 1267 1302 1305 1307 1354 1399 1482 1549 1698 1811 1804 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.7 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.7 26.0 26.6 27.4 28.4 29.5 30.5 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 125.7 126.4 127.0 127.6 128.1 129.2 130.3 131.6 133.4 135.6 138.3 140.5 142.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 8 10 12 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -14. -12. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -6. -13. -20. -26. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -16. -27. -37. -47. -56. -63. -70. -76. -79. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/23/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/23/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##