* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/23/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 79 87 94 107 115 120 117 106 95 80 67 V (KT) LAND 65 72 79 87 94 107 115 120 117 106 95 80 67 V (KT) LGE mod 65 71 77 81 85 91 95 97 95 88 77 67 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 16 13 14 13 10 18 16 21 20 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -1 0 2 1 5 1 2 -1 3 1 SHEAR DIR 17 7 14 6 13 24 32 43 42 44 54 76 47 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.3 28.5 27.3 26.2 25.2 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 160 161 162 161 162 158 150 138 127 116 103 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -51.3 -51.6 -50.9 -50.7 -50.0 -49.8 -49.4 -49.5 -49.2 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 85 84 82 84 83 83 81 85 80 77 68 63 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 28 30 33 35 40 44 48 49 48 46 41 37 850 MB ENV VOR 42 38 51 56 63 75 89 113 136 159 151 135 112 200 MB DIV 103 115 106 99 90 103 86 137 118 36 -1 -32 -13 700-850 TADV -10 -8 -7 -6 -8 -4 -5 -2 1 -1 -4 -6 -1 LAND (KM) 532 555 590 610 645 741 744 722 758 776 885 958 1081 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.8 16.7 17.8 18.9 20.1 21.4 22.6 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 105.2 106.3 107.3 108.2 109.1 110.9 112.7 114.3 116.0 117.9 120.3 122.6 124.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 12 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 56 63 51 35 27 30 32 14 3 18 14 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 9. 6. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 6. 10. 18. 25. 32. 33. 31. 28. 21. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 22. 30. 42. 50. 55. 52. 41. 30. 15. 2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/23/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/23/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##