* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/23/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 89 96 102 113 118 118 109 99 86 72 59 V (KT) LAND 75 81 89 96 102 113 118 118 109 99 86 72 59 V (KT) LGE mod 75 81 86 90 93 96 98 97 92 82 71 61 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 14 12 15 12 14 23 20 18 20 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -1 0 2 0 2 1 4 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 7 4 358 9 4 29 40 32 43 39 26 43 1 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 28.9 27.8 26.6 25.8 24.5 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 162 162 162 161 154 143 130 122 109 93 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -50.4 -50.4 -49.7 -49.6 -48.8 -49.4 -48.9 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 84 82 83 83 82 82 81 82 78 73 69 67 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 29 33 36 38 43 46 49 48 47 43 39 34 850 MB ENV VOR 32 47 61 64 65 78 92 132 148 179 161 147 98 200 MB DIV 113 119 120 68 83 128 100 123 52 33 -18 -27 -11 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -6 -11 -7 -2 -1 6 1 -3 -12 1 -1 LAND (KM) 507 540 564 609 674 749 731 736 751 820 897 973 1096 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.4 17.2 18.4 19.7 20.9 22.0 23.4 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.9 107.9 109.0 110.1 111.9 113.5 115.2 117.1 119.1 121.2 123.4 125.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 9 10 11 11 11 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 64 56 34 25 25 38 22 6 1 18 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 6. 9. 18. 24. 29. 28. 26. 21. 15. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 21. 27. 38. 43. 43. 34. 24. 11. -3. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/23/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/23/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##