* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 08/23/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 43 50 58 65 69 70 72 72 72 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 43 50 58 65 69 70 72 72 72 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 41 47 54 61 65 67 66 65 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 10 12 9 12 10 15 16 14 11 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 -3 -1 2 6 7 4 5 5 0 SHEAR DIR 272 248 285 328 354 339 349 320 355 335 303 301 269 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 154 157 158 161 160 160 159 153 149 145 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 139 140 139 138 136 137 138 133 127 121 114 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 6 8 700-500 MB RH 61 62 59 60 62 59 53 44 48 44 44 43 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 13 13 13 13 15 17 20 20 20 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 15 12 46 74 91 62 48 12 8 -25 -16 200 MB DIV 31 34 14 17 49 46 33 34 24 16 38 27 34 700-850 TADV 2 0 -3 -2 0 0 1 0 6 1 5 12 17 LAND (KM) 182 250 274 313 355 405 450 497 446 400 371 258 199 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 6 3 3 5 7 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 61 70 64 78 74 72 67 48 45 51 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 23. 30. 34. 35. 37. 37. 37. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 08/23/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 08/23/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 08/23/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)