* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/23/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 60 54 48 37 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 66 60 54 48 37 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 68 64 59 55 47 40 34 29 25 22 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 16 18 20 14 12 10 12 12 18 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 0 -1 1 -2 1 -1 3 0 4 6 SHEAR DIR 86 89 99 97 101 112 98 110 105 139 111 116 105 SST (C) 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.9 25.8 25.3 24.7 24.4 24.5 24.4 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 119 120 119 120 118 113 107 104 105 103 100 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -51.5 -51.0 -49.7 -49.4 -49.2 -49.3 -49.1 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 47 49 48 50 49 48 43 40 40 42 39 39 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 15 14 14 13 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 64 71 81 82 91 90 89 84 130 150 154 129 200 MB DIV 0 3 -11 -6 15 -3 2 26 21 19 -6 -15 -27 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 -3 0 -2 0 0 0 2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2229 2188 2115 2022 1929 1775 1722 1684 1670 1706 1804 1844 1846 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.7 20.5 20.8 20.5 20.6 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 133.8 133.2 132.5 131.7 130.8 129.3 128.9 129.0 129.4 130.0 130.9 131.4 131.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 8 5 3 4 4 4 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -16. -22. -33. -43. -51. -56. -58. -61. -66. -69. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/23/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/23/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##