* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/23/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 30 28 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 12 13 12 20 23 29 30 34 37 46 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -3 0 -1 0 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 271 237 253 268 250 239 234 227 225 226 230 223 227 SST (C) 23.6 23.2 22.9 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.2 22.4 22.8 23.4 23.8 24.2 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 97 93 90 87 85 84 83 86 90 97 101 104 108 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -50.6 -50.2 -49.8 -49.6 -49.3 -49.1 -48.5 -49.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 4 4 700-500 MB RH 52 49 49 48 47 43 42 41 40 39 38 35 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 21 20 19 18 15 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 60 80 87 88 103 103 89 62 55 40 17 8 -6 200 MB DIV 2 12 9 17 16 6 -13 -1 -4 0 0 -29 -30 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -4 5 2 9 3 7 2 3 LAND (KM) 1252 1296 1337 1344 1354 1403 1474 1574 1705 1787 1786 1667 1586 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.4 25.9 26.5 27.1 27.9 28.8 29.5 30.2 LONG(DEG W) 126.7 127.4 128.0 128.6 129.1 130.3 131.9 133.8 135.9 138.2 140.4 142.4 144.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 5 7 8 9 10 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -9. -7. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -6. -13. -19. -25. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -14. -24. -35. -45. -53. -60. -67. -73. -76. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/23/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/23/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##