* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/23/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 86 92 98 111 118 114 103 90 75 63 50 V (KT) LAND 75 80 86 92 98 111 118 114 103 90 75 63 50 V (KT) LGE mod 75 79 82 85 87 90 94 95 90 79 68 58 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 13 13 10 11 13 22 21 15 7 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 1 1 3 3 0 1 0 1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 8 358 12 14 28 59 40 40 45 44 42 139 28 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.2 28.4 27.2 26.1 25.3 23.8 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 162 161 162 157 149 136 125 117 102 87 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.0 -50.5 -49.9 -49.7 -49.4 -49.5 -49.2 -49.0 -49.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 83 84 83 82 81 80 82 80 77 72 67 66 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 33 36 38 40 45 49 49 46 43 38 34 30 850 MB ENV VOR 47 61 62 61 74 90 108 129 160 148 129 108 66 200 MB DIV 118 132 85 64 85 101 123 86 29 25 -5 -1 -20 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -10 -6 -5 -3 0 5 -2 -8 0 2 5 LAND (KM) 536 560 606 662 727 728 726 755 762 848 934 1061 1173 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.9 17.9 19.1 20.4 21.6 22.6 24.1 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 108.1 109.1 110.1 111.1 112.8 114.5 116.3 118.0 120.0 122.3 124.8 127.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 10 11 10 12 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 8 3 1 50 48 26 13 24 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 3. -1. -5. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 10. 19. 26. 27. 23. 19. 12. 7. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 36. 43. 39. 28. 15. 0. -12. -25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/23/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/23/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##