* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042014 08/24/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 35 41 48 53 56 56 59 60 64 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 35 41 48 53 56 56 59 60 64 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 30 31 35 39 44 47 51 54 57 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 16 11 7 15 12 16 8 10 9 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 2 2 0 6 5 5 3 3 2 SHEAR DIR 263 307 341 359 350 358 5 348 325 347 290 294 261 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 153 154 155 157 159 160 159 154 149 145 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 136 134 134 133 136 138 137 133 127 123 114 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.2 -51.8 -51.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 5 7 700-500 MB RH 63 60 60 63 65 57 52 47 51 49 50 48 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 15 17 17 17 15 14 14 17 850 MB ENV VOR 35 22 15 50 79 88 93 42 37 14 14 -5 10 200 MB DIV 33 17 24 53 55 40 12 12 15 13 25 24 25 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 7 7 LAND (KM) 234 297 328 355 381 411 458 517 426 362 367 359 282 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.7 23.3 23.7 24.1 24.5 25.0 25.8 26.8 28.0 29.5 31.0 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 72.4 73.0 73.5 73.8 74.0 74.3 74.5 75.0 75.8 76.6 77.0 76.5 75.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 4 3 3 5 7 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 52 45 41 40 41 43 44 41 63 47 50 34 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -3. -3. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 26. 29. 30. 34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 FOUR 08/24/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 FOUR 08/24/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 FOUR 08/24/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED