* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/24/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 12 11 17 21 25 27 31 33 36 44 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -6 -2 -5 0 -4 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 247 252 267 250 238 254 235 234 230 238 233 239 237 SST (C) 23.1 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.4 22.2 22.2 22.5 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.4 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 91 88 86 85 84 83 83 87 92 98 103 106 111 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -50.3 -50.1 -50.0 -49.4 -48.6 -48.5 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 50 47 48 46 44 42 39 37 37 37 34 32 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 20 19 17 15 13 12 10 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 66 84 87 106 110 89 70 64 59 39 20 4 -5 200 MB DIV 6 10 12 10 23 -16 -5 -6 2 -3 14 -15 -24 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 0 0 4 3 10 3 4 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1257 1297 1307 1328 1352 1403 1511 1632 1719 1850 1697 1591 1512 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.9 26.2 26.7 27.3 27.9 28.7 29.5 30.2 LONG(DEG W) 127.1 127.7 128.3 128.9 129.5 130.9 132.7 134.7 136.9 139.1 141.4 143.4 145.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 9 10 10 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -5. -3. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -7. -14. -20. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -13. -21. -30. -39. -47. -52. -56. -61. -63. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/24/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/24/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##