* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/24/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 100 106 113 121 123 115 103 86 70 56 42 V (KT) LAND 90 95 100 106 113 121 123 115 103 86 70 56 42 V (KT) LGE mod 90 95 97 99 100 103 104 99 88 74 63 53 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 11 9 10 8 12 17 15 8 7 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 0 -1 4 4 3 4 0 -2 -1 9 SHEAR DIR 356 2 20 29 29 24 40 42 51 26 8 341 6 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.5 28.8 27.6 26.4 25.3 24.2 22.9 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 162 161 162 160 153 141 128 117 106 92 84 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.1 -50.5 -50.5 -49.3 -49.7 -48.4 -49.2 -48.6 -48.9 -48.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 5 4 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 84 83 81 80 80 78 77 76 71 66 61 59 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 35 37 39 42 46 50 49 46 42 38 33 29 850 MB ENV VOR 59 57 55 64 71 90 118 140 147 128 131 101 75 200 MB DIV 117 81 67 83 119 102 130 41 47 0 4 -21 11 700-850 TADV -8 -9 -5 -7 -2 -1 5 4 -7 -4 3 -1 7 LAND (KM) 541 602 676 739 744 728 744 733 785 864 1032 1208 1228 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.5 17.4 18.6 20.0 21.5 22.7 23.6 24.9 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 108.1 109.2 110.3 111.2 112.1 113.8 115.5 117.2 119.1 121.5 124.2 126.7 128.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 22 26 34 38 19 4 1 24 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -3. -8. -14. -20. -26. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 22. 19. 12. 7. 1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 23. 31. 33. 25. 13. -4. -20. -34. -48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/24/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/24/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##