* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042014 08/24/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 40 48 55 59 60 66 68 73 74 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 40 48 55 59 60 66 68 73 74 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 47 50 53 57 61 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 10 7 12 14 15 5 14 3 11 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 4 1 7 3 8 4 9 2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 298 344 8 348 343 2 349 348 328 286 283 253 265 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 156 157 158 160 161 156 150 149 143 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 135 135 134 135 138 141 135 126 125 123 112 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 61 61 63 65 60 54 48 49 40 37 32 29 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 16 16 20 21 21 19 21 22 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 29 21 58 89 86 120 84 83 43 34 15 33 -20 200 MB DIV 40 27 57 63 41 39 16 10 12 26 -5 -1 -7 700-850 TADV -4 0 3 2 2 5 2 7 3 9 0 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 289 308 333 356 383 407 461 464 363 355 391 340 269 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.1 23.5 23.9 24.2 24.5 25.1 26.2 27.7 29.0 29.9 31.5 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.4 73.8 74.0 74.2 74.4 74.8 75.5 76.5 77.0 76.9 75.9 74.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 2 5 7 8 6 7 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 45 42 41 41 31 43 44 51 49 51 45 28 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 18. 25. 29. 31. 36. 38. 43. 44. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 FOUR 08/24/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 FOUR 08/24/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 FOUR 08/24/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED