* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/24/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 53 46 39 34 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 53 46 39 34 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 55 50 45 41 35 30 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 22 21 14 16 17 25 25 30 29 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 2 3 0 2 -2 3 4 4 5 1 SHEAR DIR 108 111 113 124 129 92 93 98 87 73 89 80 106 SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 119 120 122 122 124 123 126 126 127 129 131 131 130 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -50.9 -50.3 -50.1 -49.5 -50.2 -50.8 -51.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 49 47 42 39 40 49 52 52 50 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 11 11 11 11 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 67 64 76 86 74 79 104 173 183 109 -4 -29 200 MB DIV -6 -1 12 16 11 20 28 25 24 -11 24 15 10 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -6 0 -1 -1 1 1 0 -1 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 2117 2036 1956 1878 1802 1714 1681 1673 1657 1656 1657 1657 1679 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.9 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.4 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.0 17.7 17.7 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 132.6 131.7 130.8 130.0 129.2 128.3 127.8 127.6 127.4 127.2 126.9 126.9 127.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 8 6 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -21. -26. -36. -42. -47. -49. -52. -55. -56. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/24/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/24/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##