* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/24/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 113 119 125 130 134 125 113 97 79 64 48 37 V (KT) LAND 105 113 119 125 130 134 125 113 97 79 64 48 37 V (KT) LGE mod 105 112 115 116 116 113 107 96 82 70 59 50 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 10 15 11 15 14 15 8 5 2 1 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -2 0 2 3 2 3 -2 -2 3 4 SHEAR DIR 6 15 41 30 28 21 46 32 36 356 251 21 207 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.0 28.1 26.9 25.8 24.5 23.2 22.2 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 162 162 160 155 146 133 123 109 95 84 80 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -50.5 -50.5 -49.9 -49.7 -49.3 -49.2 -49.2 -49.0 -49.0 -49.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 84 81 80 79 78 77 75 73 70 67 62 58 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 34 37 39 42 45 50 49 48 44 39 35 30 27 850 MB ENV VOR 60 63 69 77 85 104 128 159 125 108 100 73 54 200 MB DIV 89 102 92 104 83 127 83 42 -6 -14 6 12 -6 700-850 TADV -12 -8 -5 -1 -2 4 2 -7 -5 0 4 3 5 LAND (KM) 601 673 728 715 716 714 745 781 854 950 1143 1219 1207 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.9 17.2 18.3 19.4 20.7 22.1 23.5 24.6 26.0 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.5 111.5 112.4 113.2 114.8 116.6 118.5 120.7 123.2 125.9 128.2 129.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 9 9 10 11 11 13 14 13 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 26 37 34 24 9 1 18 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -14. -22. -30. -37. -44. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 6. 11. 19. 20. 19. 13. 7. 1. -5. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 20. 8. -8. -26. -41. -57. -68. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/24/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/24/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##