* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/24/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 51 57 61 65 68 67 64 62 60 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 51 57 61 65 68 67 64 62 60 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 50 53 57 59 61 62 63 64 65 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 10 15 20 16 19 16 13 15 12 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 1 5 1 4 2 0 -1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 340 358 351 344 357 340 336 292 311 284 297 274 206 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.7 27.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 154 153 155 156 155 151 147 142 133 128 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 132 130 132 134 134 131 126 120 114 110 108 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -51.5 -52.4 -52.6 -53.3 -53.6 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 9 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 62 64 66 61 58 49 42 33 24 20 21 26 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 17 18 20 21 20 17 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 18 49 78 85 92 109 64 83 -1 -31 -23 -38 -43 200 MB DIV 15 39 71 54 54 33 -9 -4 -8 -22 1 -13 -13 700-850 TADV 1 4 3 4 4 0 8 3 1 -1 0 1 -1 LAND (KM) 352 389 426 444 463 544 637 559 513 442 392 500 735 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.8 24.2 24.5 24.7 25.5 26.5 27.8 29.3 30.8 32.3 33.5 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.2 73.3 73.4 73.5 73.5 73.7 74.5 75.4 75.2 73.5 71.0 67.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 5 6 8 8 8 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 40 37 36 36 37 39 39 40 49 28 12 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 27. 24. 22. 20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/24/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/24/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/24/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)