* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/24/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 47 40 33 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 47 40 33 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 49 44 39 36 30 26 22 20 18 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 23 17 15 18 23 31 33 30 26 22 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 2 0 2 0 0 2 6 2 3 4 SHEAR DIR 109 116 123 134 111 96 87 96 85 91 89 92 86 SST (C) 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 119 121 122 124 125 127 129 131 132 132 131 127 124 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -50.5 -50.6 -49.7 -50.0 -50.4 -51.6 -51.6 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 50 50 48 47 44 41 44 51 57 56 52 48 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 64 68 78 67 71 77 176 200 194 122 34 8 200 MB DIV 1 13 24 17 0 64 23 32 14 4 -10 32 16 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 0 0 -1 2 3 5 0 -2 -8 -5 LAND (KM) 2035 1962 1890 1840 1791 1735 1703 1680 1673 1658 1664 1688 1667 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 17.8 17.6 17.4 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 131.8 131.0 130.1 129.5 128.9 128.2 127.6 127.1 126.8 126.7 127.1 127.7 127.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 4 3 3 2 1 1 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -22. -27. -35. -41. -45. -48. -47. -47. -47. -47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/24/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/24/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##