* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/24/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 140 146 147 147 138 120 102 83 65 48 33 22 V (KT) LAND 130 140 146 147 147 138 120 102 83 65 48 33 22 V (KT) LGE mod 130 138 138 135 131 120 107 92 77 64 52 41 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 12 8 6 11 18 12 13 8 7 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 1 0 1 -2 0 0 0 0 8 4 SHEAR DIR 3 22 27 34 5 7 29 30 354 322 328 281 253 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.6 27.3 26.2 25.2 23.8 22.5 21.9 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 161 159 151 137 126 116 102 88 81 82 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.2 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 -49.7 -49.6 -49.0 -49.4 -49.1 -49.5 -48.9 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 80 78 78 77 75 74 72 69 66 60 56 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 39 42 44 46 48 50 49 47 43 39 35 31 27 850 MB ENV VOR 62 71 75 87 98 116 129 134 113 105 70 53 22 200 MB DIV 96 124 86 48 93 98 30 39 10 2 -5 13 12 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -1 0 1 3 -4 -8 -2 7 5 16 8 LAND (KM) 713 743 740 738 749 773 761 843 919 1066 1236 1246 1258 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.8 20.2 21.5 22.7 24.0 25.5 27.0 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.7 112.6 113.5 114.3 116.1 117.8 119.8 122.2 124.8 127.7 129.9 131.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 15 14 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 29 38 33 24 17 2 18 25 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -13. -24. -35. -45. -56. -66. -74. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 12. 16. 16. 14. 6. 0. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 8. 14. 14. 11. 6. 0. -5. -11. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 16. 17. 17. 8. -10. -28. -47. -65. -82. -97.-108. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/24/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 40.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/24/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##