* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/24/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 53 56 62 65 66 65 63 66 66 68 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 53 56 62 65 66 65 63 66 66 68 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 49 52 55 59 61 62 61 60 60 63 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 16 19 16 14 14 17 6 11 14 16 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 6 5 8 6 6 9 4 0 0 5 SHEAR DIR 347 347 347 360 20 339 338 324 315 274 222 242 235 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.4 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 154 155 154 154 152 148 141 134 130 126 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 132 133 132 132 130 127 120 113 112 111 113 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 66 67 62 57 53 44 45 44 43 42 46 41 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 17 18 20 21 20 20 19 21 24 28 850 MB ENV VOR 61 85 91 99 118 97 67 37 35 4 28 39 84 200 MB DIV 55 68 73 57 64 6 11 43 54 28 36 32 11 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 2 4 1 5 -1 4 7 9 -5 -6 LAND (KM) 430 461 488 517 548 633 604 591 506 411 455 648 782 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.5 24.8 25.2 25.5 26.4 27.4 28.7 30.4 31.8 33.0 34.5 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.1 73.2 73.3 73.4 73.6 74.0 74.4 74.7 73.9 71.9 68.9 65.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 5 6 8 8 9 13 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 64 64 61 63 61 58 53 47 32 23 14 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 2. 2. 1. 3. 4. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 16. 22. 25. 26. 25. 23. 26. 26. 28. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/24/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/24/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/24/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)