* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/24/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 33 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 39 33 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 39 35 32 29 25 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 16 18 22 23 34 33 35 22 16 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 4 -2 -3 2 3 6 9 3 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 109 119 123 105 102 100 86 81 77 73 74 99 106 SST (C) 25.9 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.4 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 125 126 128 129 132 136 144 146 147 146 143 141 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.2 -50.6 -50.2 -50.1 -51.1 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 49 49 47 44 42 43 49 59 66 68 64 60 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 14 13 13 13 11 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 61 64 54 58 73 172 182 110 -31 -90 -79 -69 200 MB DIV 9 30 3 -4 20 56 50 19 24 38 2 8 -2 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 3 5 -3 -4 -6 -1 6 LAND (KM) 1963 1895 1829 1785 1741 1718 1683 1599 1453 1351 1245 1184 1083 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.8 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.4 17.1 16.8 16.5 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 130.8 130.0 129.1 128.6 128.0 127.4 126.6 125.1 123.1 121.8 120.7 120.3 119.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 5 4 4 5 9 8 6 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 6 8 11 5 12 20 33 31 29 24 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -16. -18. -17. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -22. -28. -35. -35. -37. -34. -32. -30. -28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/24/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/24/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##