* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/24/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 145 148 148 145 130 109 89 69 52 32 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 140 145 148 148 145 130 109 89 69 52 32 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 140 142 139 133 127 113 99 84 70 57 45 36 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 9 9 14 16 15 9 7 2 1 2 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 1 2 1 1 5 0 -1 5 6 10 SHEAR DIR 20 19 15 11 6 43 54 53 39 17 37 195 162 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.1 26.9 26.0 25.1 23.5 22.2 21.9 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 162 159 156 146 133 124 116 99 85 80 79 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -50.4 -50.1 -49.6 -49.7 -49.7 -49.2 -49.2 -49.5 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 4 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 81 79 79 79 78 75 75 70 68 62 57 48 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 41 44 46 48 49 48 46 42 38 34 29 26 22 850 MB ENV VOR 69 76 95 101 115 126 157 144 127 96 58 43 37 200 MB DIV 114 78 67 81 106 46 17 14 -16 1 -2 11 17 700-850 TADV -1 0 4 2 3 -3 -8 -6 1 0 4 10 7 LAND (KM) 813 798 794 782 784 788 796 890 1006 1173 1241 1236 1236 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.2 17.8 19.2 20.6 21.6 22.6 24.1 26.1 27.6 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.8 113.6 114.4 115.2 117.0 118.6 120.6 123.2 126.0 128.7 130.4 131.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 11 10 12 14 15 13 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 51 52 53 52 48 24 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 371 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -20. -33. -45. -56. -68. -78. -86. -93. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -6. -3. 0. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 10. 8. 3. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 7. 3. -4. -9. -16. -19. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 8. 5. -10. -31. -51. -71. -88.-108.-120.-134. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/24/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/24/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##