* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/25/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 47 50 54 59 63 66 69 71 73 65 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 47 50 54 59 63 66 69 71 73 65 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 45 47 50 51 53 55 61 64 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 19 21 17 14 19 13 11 9 12 27 47 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 2 1 5 5 5 4 -2 0 8 1 SHEAR DIR 338 340 352 359 357 336 300 316 253 229 236 248 240 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.4 27.7 27.4 27.0 27.1 26.7 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 154 155 153 142 132 129 127 129 124 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 132 130 132 133 123 111 110 112 115 109 95 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 9 7 7 4 2 700-500 MB RH 67 61 57 53 47 41 36 35 37 41 31 29 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 18 19 19 20 22 23 24 26 27 33 30 850 MB ENV VOR 81 85 96 110 110 91 69 42 23 39 103 127 119 200 MB DIV 60 44 49 73 64 21 15 37 17 9 -11 3 -27 700-850 TADV 3 5 4 4 3 5 3 1 2 0 -5 -30 -72 LAND (KM) 474 520 566 602 639 742 699 564 542 692 827 736 637 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.1 25.5 25.9 26.2 27.5 29.6 31.4 32.6 34.2 36.1 38.4 40.9 LONG(DEG W) 73.1 73.1 73.0 73.0 72.9 72.6 72.3 72.0 71.1 68.5 64.1 59.9 56.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 9 10 8 10 17 20 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 64 61 59 57 57 45 31 14 10 11 14 10 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 783 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 25. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED