* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/25/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 30 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 35 30 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 34 30 26 24 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 17 16 18 21 25 33 32 29 22 13 13 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 -1 1 2 2 6 4 3 0 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 127 133 107 108 108 91 80 75 76 80 77 93 N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.3 27.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 129 132 132 133 139 142 143 142 142 146 143 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.0 -51.1 -49.8 -51.1 -51.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 48 46 43 45 51 60 64 65 65 64 58 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 11 12 11 8 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 61 47 48 58 136 170 136 37 -18 -64 -74 N/A 200 MB DIV 13 36 20 29 39 49 67 5 50 26 10 3 N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 0 0 2 6 6 -3 -2 -3 -2 N/A LAND (KM) 1885 1831 1780 1753 1726 1718 1668 1654 1630 1639 1561 1310 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.4 17.2 17.2 17.2 16.5 15.9 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.9 17.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.7 128.9 128.0 127.7 127.3 126.4 125.2 124.6 124.3 124.5 123.9 122.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 3 4 6 5 2 1 1 7 12 N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 1 7 8 8 18 19 24 24 28 29 23 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -10. -14. -15. -14. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -8. -13. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -18. -24. -28. -31. -36. -40. -41. -40. -38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/25/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/25/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##