* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/25/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 49 52 55 65 68 73 74 73 72 69 58 V (KT) LAND 45 46 49 52 55 65 68 73 74 73 72 69 58 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 48 50 51 53 56 59 64 68 72 68 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 18 14 18 9 5 7 14 24 45 63 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 3 1 2 0 2 0 -5 0 3 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 352 359 5 348 327 272 295 200 205 215 245 245 232 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 28.9 28.1 27.6 27.0 27.2 26.8 24.0 17.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 155 155 156 150 138 132 126 130 127 104 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 133 134 134 135 132 120 114 110 116 116 95 75 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -50.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -52.2 -51.4 -50.0 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 8 6 3 1 700-500 MB RH 64 59 53 48 44 43 38 41 42 41 33 34 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 21 21 22 29 27 26 25 23 25 30 28 850 MB ENV VOR 87 105 128 120 99 109 78 40 15 37 144 250 211 200 MB DIV 63 78 92 66 43 30 13 0 -11 15 23 25 25 700-850 TADV 5 6 8 4 7 15 1 6 -6 10 0 -18 51 LAND (KM) 455 506 558 617 677 825 725 696 799 876 792 588 555 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.8 25.2 25.8 26.3 28.0 30.2 32.0 33.6 35.6 38.2 41.4 45.1 LONG(DEG W) 72.9 72.8 72.6 72.5 72.3 71.8 71.0 69.6 67.5 64.0 59.1 53.1 46.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 7 10 11 11 15 21 26 30 30 HEAT CONTENT 63 60 60 56 52 39 21 11 12 15 11 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. -5. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 7. 7. 6. 3. 5. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 20. 23. 28. 29. 28. 27. 24. 13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED