* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/25/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 119 118 117 115 104 91 72 53 34 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 125 119 118 117 115 104 91 72 53 34 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 125 118 112 107 102 92 81 68 54 42 33 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 6 12 15 12 8 5 3 3 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 0 0 -1 -3 0 0 3 1 9 9 SHEAR DIR 353 7 341 25 36 60 54 63 63 23 257 237 209 SST (C) 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.4 27.8 26.6 25.7 24.5 23.0 22.1 21.8 21.9 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 155 149 143 130 121 109 93 83 80 80 81 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -50.5 -50.2 -50.3 -50.0 -49.8 -49.8 -49.4 -49.3 -49.2 -49.4 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 81 80 77 76 73 69 68 62 63 57 50 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 43 46 48 48 48 45 43 39 35 31 27 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 70 79 85 101 110 135 115 91 63 32 13 2 6 200 MB DIV 64 88 103 53 32 58 32 -25 -1 0 6 21 23 700-850 TADV 5 5 -1 -5 -7 -5 -1 0 6 4 8 2 2 LAND (KM) 745 735 744 759 758 828 918 1040 1225 1245 1214 1194 1113 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.3 19.0 19.7 20.9 22.1 23.3 24.7 26.2 28.0 29.4 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.3 115.2 116.2 117.2 119.2 121.6 124.1 126.8 128.9 130.5 131.4 131.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 11 12 13 14 13 11 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 51 54 41 31 29 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -8. -18. -30. -41. -53. -64. -72. -79. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -6. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 3. 0. -6. -11. -16. -22. -24. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -7. -8. -10. -21. -34. -53. -72. -91.-104.-114.-124. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/25/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/25/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##