* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/25/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 61 64 73 74 78 80 80 82 76 66 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 61 64 73 74 78 80 80 82 76 66 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 56 59 61 63 65 67 72 76 73 58 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 18 10 16 18 11 5 11 14 34 42 61 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 1 3 1 2 1 -3 -1 2 16 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 358 11 346 307 305 251 210 185 203 222 233 223 234 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.2 27.7 27.3 27.3 26.6 22.5 18.5 15.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 157 153 140 133 130 133 126 96 81 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 136 140 141 137 122 114 114 121 118 89 75 71 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -50.9 -51.5 -51.2 -52.0 -51.0 -50.5 -50.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 53 48 43 42 39 42 44 47 40 49 56 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 22 24 25 31 27 28 28 31 38 43 43 850 MB ENV VOR 107 125 128 101 89 75 33 13 39 98 180 178 135 200 MB DIV 78 85 51 20 21 0 18 -4 16 53 100 109 44 700-850 TADV 6 7 6 7 13 6 6 4 4 -30 41 56 -20 LAND (KM) 499 564 630 756 873 744 646 745 827 767 581 732 1046 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.2 25.7 26.8 27.9 30.4 32.3 34.2 36.2 38.9 42.1 46.2 50.6 LONG(DEG W) 72.8 72.5 72.1 71.7 71.3 70.5 70.0 67.9 63.6 57.4 49.6 43.4 38.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 9 12 12 11 11 16 24 31 32 28 27 HEAT CONTENT 65 63 60 45 38 18 10 15 16 10 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. 0. -5. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 7. 8. 7. 9. 16. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 23. 24. 28. 30. 30. 32. 26. 16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)