* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972014 08/25/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 30 35 40 42 44 46 47 49 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 30 35 40 42 44 46 47 47 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 24 25 27 29 31 33 34 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 13 18 19 19 20 22 22 21 19 25 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 1 0 -4 -3 -7 -1 2 4 5 6 SHEAR DIR 287 282 287 287 291 285 290 270 271 246 242 228 222 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 133 134 134 135 137 138 137 136 139 145 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 137 138 138 138 139 138 135 132 133 138 138 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 11 11 12 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 60 58 59 60 61 62 62 57 53 50 48 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 30 26 17 13 8 11 20 7 8 -10 -12 -29 200 MB DIV -27 -17 4 1 13 47 34 26 3 46 17 24 13 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -10 -10 -5 -8 -1 -10 0 -3 4 -1 3 LAND (KM) 1540 1411 1298 1200 1108 961 884 628 459 512 300 73 10 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.4 16.3 17.4 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 39.5 41.2 42.9 44.7 46.4 50.0 53.4 56.3 59.1 61.4 63.7 65.6 67.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 17 16 14 13 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 16 28 31 40 2 5 69 2 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 20. 22. 24. 26. 27. 29. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972014 INVEST 08/25/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972014 INVEST 08/25/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972014 INVEST 08/25/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)