* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/25/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 23 21 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 20 22 21 28 35 31 29 19 16 13 12 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 2 1 1 6 4 0 0 4 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 116 111 111 106 92 84 73 73 76 74 113 129 N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.4 25.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 136 138 140 142 141 139 135 131 127 122 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -50.2 -51.2 -51.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -51.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 46 47 50 52 59 67 68 66 62 59 54 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 45 44 77 142 165 148 66 -51 -75 -79 -45 N/A 200 MB DIV 33 46 64 71 33 3 1 81 36 17 0 -4 N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 5 3 0 -3 -5 -4 1 6 N/A LAND (KM) 1795 1780 1765 1753 1742 1681 1559 1491 1391 1343 1228 961 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.1 16.9 16.6 16.3 15.6 15.5 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.3 19.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.2 127.9 127.5 127.0 126.5 125.1 123.5 122.4 121.7 121.7 121.0 119.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 6 7 6 4 4 4 9 12 N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 11 12 19 12 22 21 18 14 8 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -21. -19. -17. -18. -18. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/25/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/25/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##