* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/25/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 119 114 108 101 86 70 53 37 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 125 119 114 108 101 86 70 53 37 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 125 119 112 105 98 84 70 57 45 35 28 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 14 14 15 6 5 3 4 2 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -4 0 -1 -1 2 4 9 6 SHEAR DIR 349 360 32 33 53 56 71 69 65 164 286 224 252 SST (C) 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.3 26.5 25.4 24.7 23.6 22.5 22.1 22.0 22.1 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 144 138 129 118 111 100 88 83 81 81 80 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.0 -50.3 -50.6 -50.6 -49.6 -50.3 -49.5 -49.6 -49.4 -49.6 -50.0 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 79 78 76 77 71 71 68 67 63 58 52 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 45 47 47 47 46 44 41 38 34 30 27 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR 75 87 101 115 132 141 102 78 38 21 3 0 7 200 MB DIV 90 90 50 34 63 68 -9 -8 7 11 -4 34 10 700-850 TADV 7 1 -4 -7 -6 -4 0 6 0 8 2 8 2 LAND (KM) 740 755 778 782 807 899 995 1131 1251 1232 1232 1173 1125 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.5 20.1 21.4 22.4 23.8 25.4 27.0 28.3 29.5 30.6 LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.3 116.2 117.3 118.3 120.5 122.9 125.4 127.8 129.7 131.0 131.7 131.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 10 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 46 36 23 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -12. -25. -38. -50. -62. -72. -79. -85. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -5. -2. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -6. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -10. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -2. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -17. -24. -39. -55. -72. -88.-103.-113.-122.-131. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/25/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/25/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##