* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/25/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 58 63 68 74 76 79 80 75 67 51 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 58 63 68 74 76 79 80 75 67 51 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 55 56 59 62 65 69 70 60 49 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 18 18 13 6 11 16 25 44 62 64 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 1 1 -2 2 0 -3 8 13 6 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 6 344 314 305 282 257 169 199 208 242 225 210 201 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.1 27.6 27.5 27.0 25.4 20.1 18.2 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 153 149 139 133 134 130 115 86 78 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 139 135 132 121 116 119 119 107 80 72 68 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -51.3 -51.4 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -50.7 -50.1 -49.2 -49.8 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 5 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 49 44 43 43 40 41 41 42 42 52 43 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 24 26 28 30 31 32 31 34 38 42 44 37 850 MB ENV VOR 128 132 107 100 93 59 32 25 68 174 205 209 197 200 MB DIV 82 62 34 38 51 -9 5 4 69 78 103 63 48 700-850 TADV 6 11 13 15 27 6 4 -10 5 23 2 -46 -75 LAND (KM) 538 633 727 835 861 728 722 849 790 689 606 913 1145 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.8 26.5 27.5 28.5 30.8 32.9 35.0 37.4 40.5 44.3 47.6 50.6 LONG(DEG W) 72.6 72.2 71.7 71.5 71.2 70.3 68.7 65.7 60.7 54.1 46.1 40.6 37.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 10 11 12 14 20 27 32 30 21 18 HEAT CONTENT 62 56 49 42 34 16 14 18 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 1. -4. -10. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 10. 14. 18. 18. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 18. 24. 26. 29. 30. 25. 17. 1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)